Channel Islander
11-28-2011, 08:02 PM
Hi Friends,
Fleetmates in CI and Ventura and throughout SoCal may want to be on the alert for some hefty winds on Thursday and Friday. From the NWS forecast discussion page:
THIS IS A COMPROMISE FORECAST. AND HAVE TO SAY THAT IF THE WIND
FORECAST DOES PAN OUT AS THE CURRENT MDLS FORECAST IT IS GOING TO BE
A DOOZIE. ON THURSDAY THE LAS TO DAG GRADIENT PEAKS AT 12 MB AND
MOST IMPORTANTLY THERE IS GOING TO BE 9 TO 12 DEGREES CELSIUS OF
COOLING COMBINING WITH A 70 TO 80 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A 5 TO 10 YEAR SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WITH 80 MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER A WIDE AREA.
Winds like that could certainly thrash things about even on the docks, as it's about double a standard Santa Ana. They may well back off by the time the day comes, but just as well to be prepared.
To those who aren't familiar with our waters; Santa Ana winds are our most dangerous weather condition in the Santa Barbara Channel, as high pressure over the Four Corners can create hurricane force off-shores that can turn a sheltered island anchorage into a gale-force lee shore with 6-foot breaking waves in an hour :eek:
If you aren't familiar with the NWS Forecast Discussion pages, I highly recommend them. You get to see the "why?" behind the forecasts that are made, and can learn a great deal about your local weather patterns by reading the discussions. The local page for the Oxnard CA NWS station is at http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=lox&pil=AFD&sid=LOX&version=0 , for an example.
Fair winds and safe sailing!
- nick
Fleetmates in CI and Ventura and throughout SoCal may want to be on the alert for some hefty winds on Thursday and Friday. From the NWS forecast discussion page:
THIS IS A COMPROMISE FORECAST. AND HAVE TO SAY THAT IF THE WIND
FORECAST DOES PAN OUT AS THE CURRENT MDLS FORECAST IT IS GOING TO BE
A DOOZIE. ON THURSDAY THE LAS TO DAG GRADIENT PEAKS AT 12 MB AND
MOST IMPORTANTLY THERE IS GOING TO BE 9 TO 12 DEGREES CELSIUS OF
COOLING COMBINING WITH A 70 TO 80 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A 5 TO 10 YEAR SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WITH 80 MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER A WIDE AREA.
Winds like that could certainly thrash things about even on the docks, as it's about double a standard Santa Ana. They may well back off by the time the day comes, but just as well to be prepared.
To those who aren't familiar with our waters; Santa Ana winds are our most dangerous weather condition in the Santa Barbara Channel, as high pressure over the Four Corners can create hurricane force off-shores that can turn a sheltered island anchorage into a gale-force lee shore with 6-foot breaking waves in an hour :eek:
If you aren't familiar with the NWS Forecast Discussion pages, I highly recommend them. You get to see the "why?" behind the forecasts that are made, and can learn a great deal about your local weather patterns by reading the discussions. The local page for the Oxnard CA NWS station is at http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=lox&pil=AFD&sid=LOX&version=0 , for an example.
Fair winds and safe sailing!
- nick